KitGuru is nothing is not extrapolatory. We love looking back and predicting the future. When it comes to SSD, there is a sea change coming – so we’ve pulled out the trusty sextant and peered into the foggy future to see what Spring 2014 might look like.
Right now, the 20nm process for NAND production is in its infancy. The early drives include Intel’s 335 update to the 330, which launched just as Winter 2012 started. The Intel SSD 335 Series is based on Intel’s latest 20nm Multi-Level Cell (MLC) NAND flash memory and validated for three years – which shows a degree of confidence.
The 240GB model rolled out nice and early and is presently in stores around the £140 mark.
Overall, that’s not ‘cover me in petrol, strike a match and jump off the top of the Empire State Building’ phantastique – but it is interesting.
Well, that price is for the ‘launch’ product. With so much price competition from Sandisk, Kingston etc and pressure to perform from OCZ etc, the 240GB price can only drop over the next 12 months. Let’s say it experiences a couple of drops. One when the new processes come into full effect from Intel-competitors and another when Intel launches more models itself in the 8-14 month range.
That would bring the 240GB model right into the entry level price zone (as if it isn’t already with the KitGuru SSD Product of the Year) and open up a lot of ‘price space’ above itself.
Customers have not been interested in spending more than £500 ($750) on an SSD. Indeed, anything over £200 ($300) has found sales sticky. But if the 240GB drives all move below £100 ($150) – and some a lot closer to £60 ($100) by next Spring – then a pair of them would be in the £120 to £200 range and four drives would be £240 to £400.
So that’s a 1TB drive for as little as £240 ($360).
In a world where some graphic cards and CPUs cost up to £1,000 ($1,500), that is definitely do-able.
While 60GB drives are available everywhere, we can find 120GB, 240GB and 512GB.
So the ‘smallest selling drive – and then 3 levels of storage above it’. Is 240GB is entry level, then 3 levels above would be 2TB.
Just for laughs. Ponder this. How far into the future will we need to go for 2TB to be entry level?
KitGuru says: There might be a crazy price-premium that means it costs close to £1,000, but we’re certain that the world will see the launch of a 2TB SSD drive somewhere near the start of 2014. Blimey. We really are living in the future.
Comment below or in the KitGuru forums.