Analyst forecasts further price increases in 2026 due to memory shortages

Market analysts at IDC have updated their outlook for the global memory sector, and the forecast is grim for PC builders and enthusiasts. What began as a tightening of supply is rapidly evolving into a full-blown crisis, with new data suggesting that the PC market could contract significantly in 2026 as component costs continue to skyrocket.

While IDC (via Wccftech) initially predicted in November a manageable 2.4% dip in the PC market for 2026, the analytics firm has now modeled two far more concerning scenarios based on deteriorating DRAM and NAND availability. A moderate outlook suggests a sales decline of 4.9%, while a pessimistic model warns of an 8.9% drop.

Image credit: IDC

This scenario is being driven by a sharp rise in acquisition costs. Under the moderate scenario, component prices could climb by 4-6%, but if the supply chain fractures further, we could see spikes of up to 8%. The industry giants are already passing these costs down the chain, with reports indicating that Dell and Lenovo are preparing to hike pre-built system prices by as much as 15%. In the DIY space, the situation has become so volatile that modular laptop maker Framework has ceased selling standalone RAM entirely to prevent scalpers from stripping their stock.

The root cause of this meltdown is the industry's pivot to High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) to feed the appetite of AI data centers. Semiconductor manufacturers are reallocating their limited wafer capacity to these high-margin AI chips, leaving traditional consumer memory on the back burner. Despite the shortage, vendors are hesitant to break ground on new fabrication plants, fearing that the current AI explosion might be a bubble that bursts before new facilities can come online.

KitGuru says: Of the three scenarios shown by IDC, which one do you believe 2026 will follow?

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