Analysts predict massive sales drop for next-gen Xbox and PlayStation

Ampere Analysis has issued a new forecast warning that next‑generation consoles from Sony and Microsoft could see sales drop by as much as 40% over their first five years. The decline would be driven primarily by expected price hikes, with analysts increasingly anticipating launch prices above $1,000.

As reported by VGC, the Ampere Analysis report claims that if PS6 and Xbox Helix launch in 2028 as “conventionally designed, incrementally improved next‑generation consoles” priced at $1000, combined sales over their first five years could be up to 38% lower than the PS5 and Xbox Series X/S generation. Ampere also estimates that by 2031, the console games and services market across PlayStation and Xbox could be 12% smaller compared to a scenario where the consoles launch at $700.

To avoid a $1000 launch price, Ampere outlines three strategic paths for Sony and Microsoft. The first is to delay next‑gen hardware beyond 2028, extending the current console lifecycle while waiting for component costs to fall. The second is to maintain the 2028 window but offset pricing through heavier hardware subsidies, new monetisation models, more aggressive digital strategies and optimised sales channels. The final option is to substantially innovate on hardware form factor and use cases, placing less emphasis on graphical improvements, a strategy similar to Nintendo’s pivot with the Wii.

With component prices still rising and analysts expecting next‑gen hardware to be significantly more expensive to produce, Sony and Microsoft may face difficult decisions over pricing, timing and design. If the $1000 projections hold, next‑gen adoption could slow considerably compared to the current generation.

KitGuru Says: I would say that console gamers should just move to PC if these prices become the norm, but unfortunately, the PC hardware market is pricing gamers out too, as most major vendors have begun pivoting to the datacentre market instead. 

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