Market research shows GPU market shrank in Q4 2025

The global PC-based GPU market reached a massive 756 million units in the fourth quarter of 2025, even as the industry prepares for what analysts describe as “rough sailing” in the year ahead. While the total installed base is projected to grow to 2,867 million units by 2029, the current climate is marked by significant volatility. Year-to-year total GPU shipments across all platforms decreased by 3.3%, with the notebook segment taking the hardest hit, down 5.2%. On the other hand, desktop graphics saw a modest 1.1% increase.

According to JPR, the quarter's most striking movement came from the shifting balance of power between the “Big Three” silicon giants. AMD emerged as the clear winner in terms of momentum, growing its overall GPU market share by 2.6% from the previous quarter. This growth was mirrored in the CPU space, where AMD shipments surged by 11%. In contrast, Intel saw its GPU share dip by 1.2%, and its CPU shipments fall by 1.1%, while Nvidia experienced a 1.4% decline in GPU market share. Despite this dip, the green team remains the only supplier forecasting a strong upcoming quarter, though notably, that optimism is anchored almost entirely in the AI sector rather than consumer gaming.

Image credit: JPR

Looking ahead, the outlook remains clouded by a combination of geopolitical and economic stressors. JPR points to a “perfect storm” of rising memory prices, fluctuating tariffs, and the impact of the newly launched Middle East conflict as primary drivers of instability. While the 10-year average for fourth-quarter growth is typically around 4.7%, this quarter fell short of that benchmark. Market forecasters now warn that the total PC market could decline by as much as 10% in 2026, as memory availability continues to tighten and consumer purchasing power is squeezed by global inflation.

The long-term forecast remains cautiously optimistic, with GPU shipments expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 2.4% over the next four years. Another interesting bit is the projected penetration of discrete GPUs (dGPUs), which is expected to hold at 25% of the PC market through 2029. This suggests that while integrated graphics continue to serve the bulk of the mobile and office segments, the demand for dedicated gaming and workstation hardware remains a stable pillar of the industry, even as manufacturers navigate the logistical nightmare of a transitioning global economy.

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