The adoption of Microsoft Corp.’s Windows 8 operating system has been generally slow because it looks and feels unfamiliar to most users. Windows 10 operating system promises to become more popular because Microsoft will attempt to make it more familiar to users of classic Windows operating systems. A financial analyst said that Windows 10 could be as popular as Windows 7.
Intel Corp. has suggested that as many as 600 million personal computers could be replaced with PCs powered by Windows 10 operating system in the foreseeable future. Microsoft itself said that Windows 10 will be used on billions of devices. While it is unknown precisely how Microsoft plans to monetize its next-generation operating system, Brendan Barnicle, an analyst with Pacific Crest, believes that Microsoft’s licensing revenues will be significantly higher in the coming years.
“Microsoft saw relatively weak adoption of Windows 8, but early reviews are encouraging for Windows 10,” said Mr. Barnicle in a note to clients, reports Tech Trader Daily. “The Windows 10 upgrade cycle could be like Windows 7. While we believe it will not be as strong an upgrade cycle as the XP expiration cycle, Windows 10 could provide upside to our F2016 D&C licensing revenue estimates, which are currently modeled to be flat.”
Since Windows 10 operating system will work on personal computers, tablets, smartphones and even wearables, the OS will be sold at different price-points. It is likely that average revenue per copy will be lower than average revenue a Windows license brings to Microsoft today. As a result, to benefit from Windows 10, Microsoft will just have to sell higher amount of copies than it did with Windows 8.
There are multiple ways for Microsoft to monetize its operating systems. The main challenge for Windows 10 will be to persuade makers of smartphones, tablets and wearables to use the platform in general. So far, Microsoft has not been very successful on the market of mobile devices and has consistently lost market share to Google Android. It is not guaranteed that Microsoft manages to capture share from Android and Android Wear in the future.
Microsoft will release Windows 10 operating system next fall.
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KitGuru Says: It is noteworthy that financial analysts these days do not try to assess success of Windows 10 outside the personal computer world. Given that PC makers need Windows for their systems, it is nearly certain that Windows 10 will remain rather popular on the market of desktops and notebooks. But the key to success of Windows 10 ecosystem lies outside the PC world. Microsoft needs to install Windows on mobile and ultra-mobile devices, not only on PCs, to remain relevant.